Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Racing Santander
38%
Draw
28%
Alaves
33%
Actual result: Racing Santander 2 – 1 Alaves · Racing Santander winJarvis gave this outcome: 38% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Racing Santander, negative favours Alaves) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Racing Santander - Alaves)+0.11
Expected total goals2.89
Expected goals Racing Santander / Alaves1.50 / 1.39
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.0% / 40.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.1%
Over 2.5 goals 55.1%
Over 3.5 goals 32.8%
First half
First-half result (Racing Santander / draw / Alaves)29.8% / 43.5% / 26.7%
A goal in the first half71.0%
Two or more in the first half39.0%
Half-time then full-time
Racing Santander lead at half-time then Racing Santander win23.1%
Alaves lead at half-time then Alaves win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw17.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Racing Santander's side
Racing Santander −2.013.5%
Racing Santander −1.7516.4%
Racing Santander −1.519.4%
Racing Santander −1.2524.1%
Racing Santander −1.028.8%
Racing Santander −0.7533.6%
Racing Santander −0.538.3%
Racing Santander −0.2545.4%
Racing Santander draw no bet (0.0)52.4%
Racing Santander +0.2559.5%
Racing Santander +0.566.6%
Racing Santander +0.7570.9%
Racing Santander +1.075.3%
Racing Santander +1.584.0%
Racing Santander +2.089.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Racing Santander win2.61
Draw3.53
Alaves win2.99
Over 2.51.81
Under 2.52.23
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Racing Santander wins by more than 1 goals19%
Alaves wins by more than 1 goals16%
Corners
Expected total corners11.2
6.5+ corners in the match45%