Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mainz
50%
Draw
25%
Eintracht Frankfurt
25%
Actual result: Mainz 1 – 3 Eintracht Frankfurt · Eintracht Frankfurt winJarvis gave this outcome: 25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mainz, negative favours Eintracht Frankfurt) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt)+0.59
Expected total goals3.16
Expected goals Mainz / Eintracht Frankfurt1.88 / 1.28
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.3% / 37.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.4%
Over 2.5 goals 61.1%
Over 3.5 goals 38.8%
First half
First-half result (Mainz / draw / Eintracht Frankfurt)38.0% / 39.9% / 22.1%
A goal in the first half74.6%
Two or more in the first half42.8%
Half-time then full-time
Mainz lead at half-time then Mainz win31.6%
Level at half-time then Mainz win16.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time then Eintracht Frankfurt win14.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mainz's side
Mainz −2.021.3%
Mainz −1.7525.2%
Mainz −1.529.1%
Mainz −1.2534.4%
Mainz −1.039.7%
Mainz −0.7545.0%
Mainz −0.550.3%
Mainz −0.2556.4%
Mainz draw no bet (0.0)62.6%
Mainz +0.2568.8%
Mainz +0.575.0%
Mainz +0.7578.5%
Mainz +1.082.0%
Mainz +1.589.1%
Mainz +2.092.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mainz win1.99
Draw4.05
Eintracht Frankfurt win3.99
Over 2.51.64
Under 2.52.57
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mainz wins by more than 1 goals29%
Eintracht Frankfurt wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%