Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Brighton
47%
Draw
28%
Leeds
26%
Actual result: Brighton 1 – 1 Leeds · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brighton, negative favours Leeds) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Brighton - Leeds)+0.47
Expected total goals2.70
Expected goals Brighton / Leeds1.58 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.7% / 45.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.4%
Over 2.5 goals 50.6%
Over 3.5 goals 28.6%
First half
First-half result (Brighton / draw / Leeds)34.8% / 43.6% / 21.6%
A goal in the first half69.1%
Two or more in the first half35.4%
Half-time then full-time
Brighton lead at half-time then Brighton win28.7%
Level at half-time then draw17.1%
Level at half-time then Brighton win16.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Brighton's side
Brighton −2.017.6%
Brighton −1.7521.2%
Brighton −1.524.9%
Brighton −1.2530.4%
Brighton −1.035.8%
Brighton −0.7541.3%
Brighton −0.546.8%
Brighton −0.2553.7%
Brighton draw no bet (0.0)60.6%
Brighton +0.2567.5%
Brighton +0.574.5%
Brighton +0.7578.2%
Brighton +1.082.0%
Brighton +1.589.6%
Brighton +2.093.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Brighton win2.14
Draw3.62
Leeds win3.91
Over 2.51.98
Under 2.52.02
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Brighton wins by more than 1 goals25%
Leeds wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%