Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Werder Bremen
22%
Draw
24%
RB Leipzig
55%
Actual result: Werder Bremen 3 – 1 RB Leipzig · Werder Bremen winJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Werder Bremen, negative favours RB Leipzig) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig)-0.79
Expected total goals3.24
Expected goals Werder Bremen / RB Leipzig1.22 / 2.02
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.3% / 37.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.5%
Over 2.5 goals 62.9%
Over 3.5 goals 40.7%
First half
First-half result (Werder Bremen / draw / RB Leipzig)20.0% / 39.1% / 41.0%
A goal in the first half75.4%
Two or more in the first half44.2%
Half-time then full-time
RB Leipzig lead at half-time then RB Leipzig win34.9%
Level at half-time then RB Leipzig win17.4%
Level at half-time then draw13.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Werder Bremen's side
Werder Bremen −2.06.0%
Werder Bremen −1.757.6%
Werder Bremen −1.59.1%
Werder Bremen −1.2512.3%
Werder Bremen −1.015.4%
Werder Bremen −0.7518.6%
Werder Bremen −0.521.7%
Werder Bremen −0.2527.6%
Werder Bremen draw no bet (0.0)33.5%
Werder Bremen +0.2539.4%
Werder Bremen +0.545.4%
Werder Bremen +0.7550.7%
Werder Bremen +1.056.1%
Werder Bremen +1.566.8%
Werder Bremen +2.075.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Werder Bremen win4.61
Draw4.23
RB Leipzig win1.83
Over 2.51.59
Under 2.52.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Werder Bremen wins by more than 1 goals9%
RB Leipzig wins by more than 1 goals33%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards1.8
2.5+ cards in the match28%