Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Leverkusen
70%
Draw
18%
Union Berlin
12%
Actual result: Leverkusen 4 – 0 Union Berlin · Leverkusen winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Leverkusen, negative favours Union Berlin) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Leverkusen - Union Berlin)+1.51
Expected total goals3.41
Expected goals Leverkusen / Union Berlin2.46 / 0.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.5% / 43.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.9%
Over 2.5 goals 66.3%
Over 3.5 goals 44.4%
First half
First-half result (Leverkusen / draw / Union Berlin)52.2% / 34.1% / 13.7%
A goal in the first half77.9%
Two or more in the first half46.0%
Half-time then full-time
Leverkusen lead at half-time then Leverkusen win47.7%
Level at half-time then Leverkusen win19.4%
Level at half-time then draw10.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Leverkusen's side
Leverkusen −2.038.1%
Leverkusen −1.7543.2%
Leverkusen −1.548.4%
Leverkusen −1.2553.8%
Leverkusen −1.059.2%
Leverkusen −0.7564.6%
Leverkusen −0.570.1%
Leverkusen −0.2574.5%
Leverkusen draw no bet (0.0)78.9%
Leverkusen +0.2583.4%
Leverkusen +0.587.8%
Leverkusen +0.7589.8%
Leverkusen +1.091.9%
Leverkusen +1.595.9%
Leverkusen +2.097.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Leverkusen win1.43
Draw5.64
Union Berlin win8.20
Over 2.51.51
Under 2.52.96
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Leverkusen wins by more than 1 goals48%
Union Berlin wins by more than 1 goals4%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%