Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Hoffenheim
36%
Draw
27%
Dortmund
37%
Actual result: Hoffenheim 2 – 3 Dortmund · Dortmund winJarvis gave this outcome: 37% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Hoffenheim, negative favours Dortmund) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Hoffenheim - Dortmund)-0.03
Expected total goals3.28
Expected goals Hoffenheim / Dortmund1.62 / 1.65
Both teams to score (yes / no)66.7% / 33.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.6%
Over 2.5 goals 63.6%
Over 3.5 goals 41.4%
First half
First-half result (Hoffenheim / draw / Dortmund)28.9% / 41.4% / 29.6%
A goal in the first half75.0%
Two or more in the first half45.5%
Half-time then full-time
Dortmund lead at half-time then Dortmund win22.6%
Hoffenheim lead at half-time then Hoffenheim win21.8%
Level at half-time then draw15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Hoffenheim's side
Hoffenheim −2.013.3%
Hoffenheim −1.7516.1%
Hoffenheim −1.518.9%
Hoffenheim −1.2523.2%
Hoffenheim −1.027.5%
Hoffenheim −0.7531.8%
Hoffenheim −0.536.1%
Hoffenheim −0.2542.8%
Hoffenheim draw no bet (0.0)49.4%
Hoffenheim +0.2556.1%
Hoffenheim +0.562.7%
Hoffenheim +0.7567.1%
Hoffenheim +1.071.5%
Hoffenheim +1.580.3%
Hoffenheim +2.086.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Hoffenheim win2.77
Draw3.76
Dortmund win2.68
Over 2.51.57
Under 2.52.75
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Hoffenheim wins by more than 1 goals19%
Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals20%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%