Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mgladbach
51%
Draw
25%
Elversberg
24%
Actual result: Mgladbach 3 – 4 Elversberg · Elversberg winJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mgladbach, negative favours Elversberg) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mgladbach - Elversberg)+0.63
Expected total goals3.29
Expected goals Mgladbach / Elversberg1.96 / 1.33
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.7% / 35.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 goals 63.8%
Over 3.5 goals 41.7%
First half
First-half result (Mgladbach / draw / Elversberg)38.2% / 40.2% / 21.6%
A goal in the first half75.4%
Two or more in the first half45.4%
Half-time then full-time
Mgladbach lead at half-time then Mgladbach win32.0%
Level at half-time then Mgladbach win16.6%
Level at half-time then draw14.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mgladbach's side
Mgladbach −2.022.2%
Mgladbach −1.7526.2%
Mgladbach −1.530.1%
Mgladbach −1.2535.2%
Mgladbach −1.040.4%
Mgladbach −0.7545.5%
Mgladbach −0.550.6%
Mgladbach −0.2556.8%
Mgladbach draw no bet (0.0)63.1%
Mgladbach +0.2569.3%
Mgladbach +0.575.6%
Mgladbach +0.7578.9%
Mgladbach +1.082.3%
Mgladbach +1.589.0%
Mgladbach +2.092.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mgladbach win1.98
Draw4.00
Elversberg win4.09
Over 2.51.57
Under 2.52.77
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mgladbach wins by more than 1 goals30%
Elversberg wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%