Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Freiburg
60%
Draw
24%
Schalke 04
16%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Freiburg, negative favours Schalke 04) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Freiburg - Schalke 04)+1.00
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Freiburg / Schalke 041.88 / 0.88
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.7% / 49.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.4%
Over 2.5 goals 52.1%
Over 3.5 goals 30.0%
First half
First-half result (Freiburg / draw / Schalke 04)43.3% / 41.4% / 15.3%
A goal in the first half70.1%
Two or more in the first half36.3%
Half-time then full-time
Freiburg lead at half-time then Freiburg win38.4%
Level at half-time then Freiburg win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Freiburg's side
Freiburg −2.026.7%
Freiburg −1.7531.4%
Freiburg −1.536.1%
Freiburg −1.2542.0%
Freiburg −1.048.0%
Freiburg −0.7553.9%
Freiburg −0.559.8%
Freiburg −0.2565.9%
Freiburg draw no bet (0.0)72.0%
Freiburg +0.2578.0%
Freiburg +0.584.1%
Freiburg +0.7586.7%
Freiburg +1.089.3%
Freiburg +1.594.6%
Freiburg +2.096.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Freiburg win1.67
Draw4.13
Schalke 04 win6.28
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.09
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Freiburg wins by more than 1 goals36%
Schalke 04 wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%