English Sky Bet Championship

Derby vs Cardiff prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Derby vs Cardiff (English Sky Bet Championship), 22/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Derby 49%, the draw 28% and Cardiff 23%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Derby

49%

Draw

28%

Cardiff

23%

Actual result: Derby 2 – 2 Cardiff · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Derby, negative favours Cardiff) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Derby - Cardiff)+0.53

Expected total goals2.42

Expected goals Derby / Cardiff1.47 / 0.94

Both teams to score (yes / no)48.0% / 52.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 70.4%

Over 2.5 goals 43.5%

Over 3.5 goals 22.5%

First half

First-half result (Derby / draw / Cardiff)35.1% / 45.3% / 19.6%

A goal in the first half65.6%

Two or more in the first half30.3%

Half-time then full-time

Derby lead at half-time then Derby win29.5%

Level at half-time then draw18.3%

Level at half-time then Derby win17.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Derby's side

Derby −2.017.3%

Derby −1.7521.0%

Derby −1.524.8%

Derby −1.2530.7%

Derby −1.036.7%

Derby −0.7542.6%

Derby −0.548.5%

Derby −0.2555.6%

Derby draw no bet (0.0)62.6%

Derby +0.2569.7%

Derby +0.576.7%

Derby +0.7580.4%

Derby +1.084.1%

Derby +1.591.6%

Derby +2.094.7%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Derby win2.06

Draw3.55

Cardiff win4.29

Over 2.52.30

Under 2.51.77

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Derby wins by more than 1 goals25%

Cardiff wins by more than 1 goals8%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 22/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.