French Ligue 1

Marseille vs Strasbourg prediction

4 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Marseille vs Strasbourg (Ligue 1), 22/08/2026, finished 4-0: Marseille won. Before the match Jarvis gave Marseille 55%, the draw 24% and Strasbourg 21%; the actual result had a 55% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Marseille

55%

Draw

24%

Strasbourg

21%

Actual result: Marseille 4 – 0 Strasbourg · Marseille winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Marseille, negative favours Strasbourg) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Marseille - Strasbourg)+0.83

Expected total goals3.17

Expected goals Marseille / Strasbourg2.00 / 1.17

Both teams to score (yes / no)60.8% / 39.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 83.7%

Over 2.5 goals 61.4%

Over 3.5 goals 39.1%

First half

First-half result (Marseille / draw / Strasbourg)41.4% / 39.5% / 19.2%

A goal in the first half74.7%

Two or more in the first half43.1%

Half-time then full-time

Marseille lead at half-time then Marseille win35.5%

Level at half-time then Marseille win17.7%

Level at half-time then draw13.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Marseille's side

Marseille −2.025.1%

Marseille −1.7529.4%

Marseille −1.533.7%

Marseille −1.2539.2%

Marseille −1.044.6%

Marseille −0.7550.0%

Marseille −0.555.5%

Marseille −0.2561.4%

Marseille draw no bet (0.0)67.4%

Marseille +0.2573.3%

Marseille +0.579.3%

Marseille +0.7582.3%

Marseille +1.085.4%

Marseille +1.591.5%

Marseille +2.094.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Marseille win1.80

Draw4.20

Strasbourg win4.83

Over 2.51.63

Under 2.52.59

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Marseille wins by more than 1 goals34%

Strasbourg wins by more than 1 goals8%

Corners

Expected total corners9.6

6.5+ corners in the match49%

Cards

Expected total cards2.0

2.5+ cards in the match32%