Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Espanyol
41%
Draw
31%
Sevilla
28%
Actual result: Espanyol 1 – 1 Sevilla · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Espanyol, negative favours Sevilla) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Espanyol - Sevilla)+0.27
Expected total goals2.40
Expected goals Espanyol / Sevilla1.33 / 1.06
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.2% / 49.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.1%
Over 2.5 goals 42.9%
Over 3.5 goals 22.0%
First half
First-half result (Espanyol / draw / Sevilla)30.3% / 47.5% / 22.2%
A goal in the first half64.5%
Two or more in the first half30.8%
Half-time then full-time
Espanyol lead at half-time then Espanyol win24.6%
Level at half-time then draw20.5%
Sevilla lead at half-time then Sevilla win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Espanyol's side
Espanyol −2.013.5%
Espanyol −1.7516.7%
Espanyol −1.519.9%
Espanyol −1.2525.1%
Espanyol −1.030.4%
Espanyol −0.7535.6%
Espanyol −0.540.9%
Espanyol −0.2548.7%
Espanyol draw no bet (0.0)56.6%
Espanyol +0.2564.4%
Espanyol +0.572.3%
Espanyol +0.7576.4%
Espanyol +1.080.4%
Espanyol +1.588.6%
Espanyol +2.092.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Espanyol win2.44
Draw3.19
Sevilla win3.61
Over 2.52.33
Under 2.51.75
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Espanyol wins by more than 1 goals20%
Sevilla wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards4.8
2.5+ cards in the match52%