UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

FC Nordsjaelland vs St Gallen prediction

1 – 0
Full-time

Match summary

FC Nordsjaelland vs St Gallen (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 21/08/2026, finished 1-0: FC Nordsjaelland won.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
FC Nordsjaelland
65%
Draw
19%
St Gallen
16%
Actual result: FC Nordsjaelland 1 – 0 St Gallen · FC Nordsjaelland winJarvis gave this outcome: 65% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Nordsjaelland, negative favours St Gallen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (FC Nordsjaelland - St Gallen)+1.30
Expected total goals3.67
Expected goals FC Nordsjaelland / St Gallen2.49 / 1.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.3% / 35.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 88.8%
Over 2.5 goals 71.0%
Over 3.5 goals 50.0%
First half
First-half result (FC Nordsjaelland / draw / St Gallen)49.0% / 34.5% / 16.5%
A goal in the first half79.8%
Two or more in the first half50.2%
Half-time then full-time
FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time then FC Nordsjaelland win43.7%
Level at half-time then FC Nordsjaelland win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw10.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from FC Nordsjaelland's side
FC Nordsjaelland −2.034.7%
FC Nordsjaelland −1.7539.5%
FC Nordsjaelland −1.544.2%
FC Nordsjaelland −1.2549.4%
FC Nordsjaelland −1.054.7%
FC Nordsjaelland −0.7559.9%
FC Nordsjaelland −0.565.1%
FC Nordsjaelland −0.2569.9%
FC Nordsjaelland draw no bet (0.0)74.6%
FC Nordsjaelland +0.2579.4%
FC Nordsjaelland +0.584.2%
FC Nordsjaelland +0.7586.6%
FC Nordsjaelland +1.089.0%
FC Nordsjaelland +1.593.8%
FC Nordsjaelland +2.096.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
FC Nordsjaelland win1.54
Draw5.24
St Gallen win6.32
Over 2.51.41
Under 2.53.44

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
FC Nordsjaelland wins by more than 1 goals44%
St Gallen wins by more than 1 goals6%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 21/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.