UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

FC Twente vs Qarabag FK prediction

0 – 1
Full-time

Match summary

FC Twente vs Qarabag FK (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 21/08/2026, finished 0-1: Qarabag FK won. Before the match Jarvis gave FC Twente 67%, the draw 19% and Qarabag FK 14%; the actual result had a 14% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 3.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
FC Twente
67%
Draw
19%
Qarabag FK
14%
Actual result: FC Twente 0 – 1 Qarabag FK · Qarabag FK winJarvis gave this outcome: 14%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Twente, negative favours Qarabag FK) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (FC Twente - Qarabag FK)+1.34
Expected total goals3.23
Expected goals FC Twente / Qarabag FK2.29 / 0.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.2% / 44.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.6%
Over 2.5 goals 62.7%
Over 3.5 goals 40.5%
First half
First-half result (FC Twente / draw / Qarabag FK)49.9% / 35.3% / 14.8%
A goal in the first half76.4%
Two or more in the first half43.0%
Half-time then full-time
FC Twente lead at half-time then FC Twente win45.0%
Level at half-time then FC Twente win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw10.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from FC Twente's side
FC Twente −2.034.5%
FC Twente −1.7539.5%
FC Twente −1.544.6%
FC Twente −1.2550.3%
FC Twente −1.055.9%
FC Twente −0.7561.6%
FC Twente −0.567.3%
FC Twente −0.2572.0%
FC Twente draw no bet (0.0)76.7%
FC Twente +0.2581.4%
FC Twente +0.586.1%
FC Twente +0.7588.5%
FC Twente +1.090.8%
FC Twente +1.595.4%
FC Twente +2.097.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
FC Twente win1.49
Draw5.32
Qarabag FK win7.21
Over 2.51.59
Under 2.52.68

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
FC Twente wins by more than 1 goals45%
Qarabag FK wins by more than 1 goals5%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 21/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.