UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

FK Riga vs Vardar Skopje prediction

FK Riga

5 – 2

Full-time

Vardar Skopje

Match summary

FK Riga vs Vardar Skopje (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 29/07/2026, finished 5-2: FK Riga won.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

FK Riga

70%

Draw

17%

Vardar Skopje

12%

Actual result: FK Riga 5 – 2 Vardar Skopje · FK Riga winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FK Riga, negative favours Vardar Skopje) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (FK Riga - Vardar Skopje)+1.50

Expected total goals3.29

Expected goals FK Riga / Vardar Skopje2.39 / 0.90

Both teams to score (yes / no)53.9% / 46.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 84.1%

Over 2.5 goals 63.8%

Over 3.5 goals 41.7%

First half

First-half result (FK Riga / draw / Vardar Skopje)52.3% / 34.0% / 13.6%

A goal in the first half77.1%

Two or more in the first half43.7%

Half-time then full-time

FK Riga lead at half-time then FK Riga win47.7%

Level at half-time then FK Riga win19.4%

Level at half-time then draw9.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from FK Riga's side

FK Riga −2.037.6%

FK Riga −1.7542.8%

FK Riga −1.547.9%

FK Riga −1.2553.6%

FK Riga −1.059.2%

FK Riga −0.7564.8%

FK Riga −0.570.4%

FK Riga −0.2574.8%

FK Riga draw no bet (0.0)79.1%

FK Riga +0.2583.5%

FK Riga +0.587.8%

FK Riga +0.7589.9%

FK Riga +1.092.0%

FK Riga +1.596.2%

FK Riga +2.097.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

FK Riga win1.42

Draw5.75

Vardar Skopje win8.20

Over 2.51.57

Under 2.52.76

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

FK Riga wins by more than 1 goals48%

Vardar Skopje wins by more than 1 goals4%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 29/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.