UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Crvena Zvezda prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Crvena Zvezda (Champions League), 05/08/2026, finished 1-0: Hapoel Beer Sheva won. Before the match Jarvis gave Hapoel Beer Sheva 19%, the draw 23% and Crvena Zvezda 58%; the actual result had a 19% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Hapoel Beer Sheva

19%

Draw

23%

Crvena Zvezda

58%

Actual result: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 – 0 Crvena Zvezda · Hapoel Beer Sheva winJarvis gave this outcome: 19%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Hapoel Beer Sheva, negative favours Crvena Zvezda) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Hapoel Beer Sheva - Crvena Zvezda)-0.90

Expected total goals2.83

Expected goals Hapoel Beer Sheva / Crvena Zvezda0.97 / 1.87

Both teams to score (yes / no)52.5% / 47.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.6%

Over 2.5 goals 53.8%

Over 3.5 goals 31.5%

First half

First-half result (Hapoel Beer Sheva / draw / Crvena Zvezda)17.7% / 39.6% / 42.7%

A goal in the first half71.8%

Two or more in the first half36.6%

Half-time then full-time

Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time then Crvena Zvezda win37.1%

Level at half-time then Crvena Zvezda win18.5%

Level at half-time then draw13.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Hapoel Beer Sheva's side

Hapoel Beer Sheva −2.04.1%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −1.755.3%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −1.56.5%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −1.259.6%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −1.012.7%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −0.7515.8%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −0.518.9%

Hapoel Beer Sheva −0.2524.6%

Hapoel Beer Sheva draw no bet (0.0)30.3%

Hapoel Beer Sheva +0.2536.0%

Hapoel Beer Sheva +0.541.7%

Hapoel Beer Sheva +0.7547.8%

Hapoel Beer Sheva +1.053.8%

Hapoel Beer Sheva +1.565.9%

Hapoel Beer Sheva +2.074.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Hapoel Beer Sheva win5.28

Draw4.39

Crvena Zvezda win1.72

Over 2.51.86

Under 2.52.16

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by more than 1 goals7%

Crvena Zvezda wins by more than 1 goals34%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 05/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.