UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Union St Gilloise vs Bodo Glimt prediction

3 – 3
Full-time

Match summary

Union St Gilloise vs Bodo Glimt (Champions League), 05/08/2026, finished 3-3: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Union St Gilloise 41%, the draw 28% and Bodo Glimt 31%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 6 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Union St Gilloise
41%
Draw
28%
Bodo Glimt
31%
Actual result: Union St Gilloise 3 – 3 Bodo Glimt · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Union St Gilloise, negative favours Bodo Glimt) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Union St Gilloise - Bodo Glimt)+0.23
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Union St Gilloise / Bodo Glimt1.51 / 1.28
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.8% / 42.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.3%
Over 2.5 goals 52.9%
Over 3.5 goals 30.7%
First half
First-half result (Union St Gilloise / draw / Bodo Glimt)31.4% / 43.5% / 25.1%
A goal in the first half70.2%
Two or more in the first half37.2%
Half-time then full-time
Union St Gilloise lead at half-time then Union St Gilloise win24.9%
Bodo Glimt lead at half-time then Bodo Glimt win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Union St Gilloise's side
Union St Gilloise −2.014.6%
Union St Gilloise −1.7517.8%
Union St Gilloise −1.520.9%
Union St Gilloise −1.2526.0%
Union St Gilloise −1.031.0%
Union St Gilloise −0.7536.1%
Union St Gilloise −0.541.1%
Union St Gilloise −0.2548.1%
Union St Gilloise draw no bet (0.0)55.1%
Union St Gilloise +0.2562.1%
Union St Gilloise +0.569.1%
Union St Gilloise +0.7573.3%
Union St Gilloise +1.077.6%
Union St Gilloise +1.586.0%
Union St Gilloise +2.090.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Union St Gilloise win2.43
Draw3.57
Bodo Glimt win3.24
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.13

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Union St Gilloise wins by more than 1 goals21%
Bodo Glimt wins by more than 1 goals14%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Hapoel Be'erThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
  • vs Celta Vigo (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
  • vs Napoli (away)Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs LilleWed 04/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 05/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Champions League table, latest

See the full Champions League table