UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

PFC Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty prediction

1 – 0
Full-time

Match summary

PFC Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty (Champions League), 05/08/2026, finished 1-0: PFC Levski Sofia won. Before the match Jarvis gave PFC Levski Sofia 57%, the draw 27% and Kairat Almaty 15%; the actual result had a 57% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
PFC Levski Sofia
57%
Draw
27%
Kairat Almaty
15%
Actual result: PFC Levski Sofia 1 – 0 Kairat Almaty · PFC Levski Sofia winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours PFC Levski Sofia, negative favours Kairat Almaty) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (PFC Levski Sofia - Kairat Almaty)+0.87
Expected total goals2.25
Expected goals PFC Levski Sofia / Kairat Almaty1.56 / 0.69
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.4% / 59.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.8%
Over 2.5 goals 39.1%
Over 3.5 goals 19.1%
First half
First-half result (PFC Levski Sofia / draw / Kairat Almaty)40.0% / 46.2% / 13.9%
A goal in the first half62.9%
Two or more in the first half27.6%
Half-time then full-time
PFC Levski Sofia lead at half-time then PFC Levski Sofia win35.6%
Level at half-time then PFC Levski Sofia win20.5%
Level at half-time then draw18.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from PFC Levski Sofia's side
PFC Levski Sofia −2.022.2%
PFC Levski Sofia −1.7526.8%
PFC Levski Sofia −1.531.3%
PFC Levski Sofia −1.2537.8%
PFC Levski Sofia −1.044.3%
PFC Levski Sofia −0.7550.8%
PFC Levski Sofia −0.557.3%
PFC Levski Sofia −0.2564.1%
PFC Levski Sofia draw no bet (0.0)71.0%
PFC Levski Sofia +0.2577.8%
PFC Levski Sofia +0.584.7%
PFC Levski Sofia +0.7587.4%
PFC Levski Sofia +1.090.1%
PFC Levski Sofia +1.595.6%
PFC Levski Sofia +2.097.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
PFC Levski Sofia win1.75
Draw3.65
Kairat Almaty win6.53
Over 2.52.56
Under 2.51.64

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
PFC Levski Sofia wins by more than 1 goals31%
Kairat Almaty wins by more than 1 goals4%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Viktoria Plzen (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
  • vs Jagiellonia BialystokFri 06/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 05/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.