UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Sparta Prague vs Lyon prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Sparta Prague vs Lyon (Champions League), 05/08/2026, finished 2-1: Sparta Prague won. Before the match Jarvis gave Sparta Prague 28%, the draw 28% and Lyon 45%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Sparta Prague

28%

Draw

28%

Lyon

45%

Actual result: Sparta Prague 2 – 1 Lyon · Sparta Prague winJarvis gave this outcome: 28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sparta Prague, negative favours Lyon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Sparta Prague - Lyon)-0.38

Expected total goals2.80

Expected goals Sparta Prague / Lyon1.21 / 1.59

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.4% / 42.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.4%

Over 2.5 goals 53.1%

Over 3.5 goals 30.9%

First half

First-half result (Sparta Prague / draw / Lyon)23.0% / 43.3% / 33.7%

A goal in the first half70.3%

Two or more in the first half37.3%

Half-time then full-time

Lyon lead at half-time then Lyon win27.4%

Level at half-time then draw16.9%

Sparta Prague lead at half-time then Sparta Prague win16.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sparta Prague's side

Sparta Prague −2.07.9%

Sparta Prague −1.759.9%

Sparta Prague −1.512.0%

Sparta Prague −1.2515.9%

Sparta Prague −1.019.8%

Sparta Prague −0.7523.7%

Sparta Prague −0.527.6%

Sparta Prague −0.2534.5%

Sparta Prague draw no bet (0.0)41.5%

Sparta Prague +0.2548.4%

Sparta Prague +0.555.3%

Sparta Prague +0.7560.5%

Sparta Prague +1.065.8%

Sparta Prague +1.576.3%

Sparta Prague +2.083.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sparta Prague win3.62

Draw3.61

Lyon win2.24

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.52.13

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Sparta Prague wins by more than 1 goals12%

Lyon wins by more than 1 goals24%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Sparta Prague

vs Olympiacos (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs AFC BournemouthFri 06/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Lyon

vs NiceMon 19/10, 01:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 49% / 26% / 25%
vs TSG Hoffenheim (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 05/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.