Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Le Havre
34%
Draw
32%
Brest
34%
Actual result: Le Havre 1 – 2 Brest · Brest winJarvis gave this outcome: 34% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Le Havre, negative favours Brest) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Le Havre - Brest)-0.02
Expected total goals2.39
Expected goals Le Havre / Brest1.19 / 1.20
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.7% / 49.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.0%
Over 2.5 goals 42.7%
Over 3.5 goals 21.8%
First half
First-half result (Le Havre / draw / Brest)25.8% / 47.9% / 26.3%
A goal in the first half64.2%
Two or more in the first half30.7%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw20.9%
Brest lead at half-time then Brest win20.3%
Le Havre lead at half-time then Le Havre win19.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Le Havre's side
Le Havre −2.09.9%
Le Havre −1.7512.5%
Le Havre −1.515.0%
Le Havre −1.2519.7%
Le Havre −1.024.3%
Le Havre −0.7529.0%
Le Havre −0.533.6%
Le Havre −0.2541.6%
Le Havre draw no bet (0.0)49.6%
Le Havre +0.2557.6%
Le Havre +0.565.6%
Le Havre +0.7570.3%
Le Havre +1.075.1%
Le Havre +1.584.5%
Le Havre +2.089.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Le Havre win2.97
Draw3.13
Brest win2.91
Over 2.52.34
Under 2.51.74
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Le Havre wins by more than 1 goals15%
Brest wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%