Spanish La Liga

Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction

23:30, 18/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon

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Malaga meet Real Sociedad in the La Liga, kick-off 23:30 on 18/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Malaga are 20th (4 points from 8 games) and Real Sociedad are 6th (13 points from 8 games). Jarvis gives Malaga a 27% chance to win, 28% for a draw and 44% for Real Sociedad; the score Jarvis predicts is 1-2. Jarvis expects 2.7 goals in the match: both teams score with 56%, 3 or more goals with 52%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Malaga
27%
Draw
28%
Real Sociedad
44%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Malaga, negative favours Real Sociedad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Tap a row to see how that market has moved.
Over / Under (total goals)
First half
First-half result (Malaga / draw / Real Sociedad)22.7% / 44.0% / 33.3%
A goal in the first half69.4%
Two or more in the first half36.4%
Half-time then full-time
Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win27.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.5%
Level at half-time then Real Sociedad win15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Malaga's side

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Malaga win3.66
Draw3.53
Real Sociedad win2.25
Over 2.51.94
Under 2.52.07

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%

Probability trajectory

Malaga vs Real Sociedad injury report and team news

Malaga
  • J. CruzOut · Injury
  • M. DiarraOut · Calf Injury
  • J. LobeteOut · Knee Injury
  • D. MurilloOut · Knee Injury
  • A. OchoaOut · Knee Injury
Real Sociedad
  • L. BeitiaOut · Ankle Injury
  • P. MarinOut · Red Card
  • A. OdriozolaOut · Knee Injury

Malaga vs Real Sociedad team form

MalagaDLLDD
Last 5 matches
09/10/2026Espanyol (home)1–1
20/09/2026Getafe (away)0–1
17/09/2026Villarreal (home)1–3
13/09/2026Celta Vigo (away)1–1
06/09/2026Levante (home)0–0
Real SociedadDWLWL
Last 5 matches
15/10/2026Union St. Gilloise (away)1–1
11/10/2026Deportivo La Coruna (home)3–2
02/10/2026Athletic Club (home)0–1
20/09/2026Valencia (away)3–2
17/09/2026Bournemouth (home)1–2

Malaga vs Real Sociedad head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Malaga won 4, drew 3, lost 3. Malaga scored 12 and conceded 9 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
07/01/2024Malaga0–1Real Sociedad
22/04/2018Malaga2–0Real Sociedad
10/12/2017Real Sociedad0–2Malaga
14/05/2017Real Sociedad2–2Malaga
16/01/2017Malaga0–2Real Sociedad
27/02/2016Real Sociedad1–1Malaga
03/10/2015Malaga3–1Real Sociedad
04/04/2015Malaga1–1Real Sociedad
01/11/2014Real Sociedad0–1Malaga
17/02/2014Malaga0–1Real Sociedad

Match information

Referee
Luis Bestard Servera
Venue
La Rosaleda, Malaga
Round
9

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Alaves (away)Sat 24/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Real Betis (away)Sun 01/11, 00:30 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Lillestrom (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
  • vs LevanteMon 26/10, 00:30 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 18/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

La Liga table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1Barcelona9+3027
2Atletico Madrid9+1122
3Real Betis9+219
...
5Sevilla8+114
6Real Sociedad8-313
7Alaves8+411
...
19Valencia9-96
20Malaga8-94

See the full La Liga table