Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Marseille
51%
Draw
26%
Paris FC
23%
Actual result: Marseille 2 – 3 Paris FC · Paris FC winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Marseille, negative favours Paris FC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Marseille - Paris FC)+0.63
Expected total goals2.74
Expected goals Marseille / Paris FC1.69 / 1.05
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.2% / 45.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.0%
Over 2.5 goals 51.7%
Over 3.5 goals 29.5%
First half
First-half result (Marseille / draw / Paris FC)37.6% / 42.6% / 19.8%
A goal in the first half69.9%
Two or more in the first half36.0%
Half-time then full-time
Marseille lead at half-time then Marseille win31.8%
Level at half-time then Marseille win17.5%
Level at half-time then draw16.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Marseille's side
Marseille −2.020.3%
Marseille −1.7524.3%
Marseille −1.528.3%
Marseille −1.2534.0%
Marseille −1.039.7%
Marseille −0.7545.4%
Marseille −0.551.1%
Marseille −0.2557.7%
Marseille draw no bet (0.0)64.3%
Marseille +0.2570.8%
Marseille +0.577.4%
Marseille +0.7580.9%
Marseille +1.084.3%
Marseille +1.591.2%
Marseille +2.094.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Marseille win1.96
Draw3.79
Paris FC win4.43
Over 2.51.93
Under 2.52.07
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Marseille wins by more than 1 goals28%
Paris FC wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match61%