French Ligue 1

Monaco vs Marseille prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Monaco vs Marseille (Ligue 1), 31/08/2026, finished 2-0: Monaco won. Before the match Jarvis gave Monaco 43%, the draw 28% and Marseille 30%; the actual result had a 43% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Monaco

43%

Draw

28%

Marseille

30%

Actual result: Monaco 2 – 0 Marseille · Monaco winJarvis gave this outcome: 43% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Monaco, negative favours Marseille) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Monaco - Marseille)+0.29

Expected total goals2.89

Expected goals Monaco / Marseille1.59 / 1.30

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.6% / 40.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.1%

Over 2.5 goals 55.3%

Over 3.5 goals 32.9%

First half

First-half result (Monaco / draw / Marseille)32.5% / 43.0% / 24.4%

A goal in the first half71.2%

Two or more in the first half39.0%

Half-time then full-time

Monaco lead at half-time then Monaco win26.1%

Marseille lead at half-time then Marseille win17.4%

Level at half-time then draw16.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Monaco's side

Monaco −2.015.9%

Monaco −1.7519.2%

Monaco −1.522.5%

Monaco −1.2527.6%

Monaco −1.032.6%

Monaco −0.7537.6%

Monaco −0.542.6%

Monaco −0.2549.6%

Monaco draw no bet (0.0)56.5%

Monaco +0.2563.4%

Monaco +0.570.4%

Monaco +0.7574.4%

Monaco +1.078.4%

Monaco +1.586.5%

Monaco +2.090.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Monaco win2.34

Draw3.61

Marseille win3.37

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.24

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Monaco wins by more than 1 goals23%

Marseille wins by more than 1 goals14%

Corners

Expected total corners9.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards2.3

2.5+ cards in the match41%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Monaco

vs Lorient (away)Sun 18/10, 22:15 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27
vs LilleSun 25/10, 21:00 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27

Marseille

vs Angers (away)Sun 18/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27
vs SK Sturm Graz (away)Thu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 31/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Ligue 1 table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	AS Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Stade Rennais	6	+2	13
...
13	Angers	6	-3	7
14	Marseille	6	+1	6
15	Le Mans	7	-5	6

See the full Ligue 1 table