Italian Serie A

Lazio vs Genoa prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Lazio vs Genoa (Serie A), 31/08/2026, finished 1-0: Lazio won. Before the match Jarvis gave Lazio 40%, the draw 34% and Genoa 26%; the actual result had a 40% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-0. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.0.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lazio

40%

Draw

34%

Genoa

26%

Actual result: Lazio 1 – 0 Genoa · Lazio winJarvis gave this outcome: 40% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lazio, negative favours Genoa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lazio - Genoa)+0.26

Expected total goals2.02

Expected goals Lazio / Genoa1.14 / 0.88

Both teams to score (yes / no)41.8% / 58.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 61.9%

Over 2.5 goals 32.8%

Over 3.5 goals 14.6%

First half

First-half result (Lazio / draw / Genoa)28.3% / 51.5% / 20.2%

A goal in the first half58.4%

Two or more in the first half24.3%

Half-time then full-time

Level at half-time then draw24.1%

Lazio lead at half-time then Lazio win23.3%

Level at half-time then Lazio win16.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lazio's side

Lazio −2.011.6%

Lazio −1.7514.5%

Lazio −1.517.5%

Lazio −1.2523.0%

Lazio −1.028.5%

Lazio −0.7534.0%

Lazio −0.539.5%

Lazio −0.2548.2%

Lazio draw no bet (0.0)56.8%

Lazio +0.2565.4%

Lazio +0.574.0%

Lazio +0.7578.2%

Lazio +1.082.3%

Lazio +1.590.5%

Lazio +2.094.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lazio win2.53

Draw2.90

Genoa win3.85

Over 2.53.05

Under 2.51.49

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lazio wins by more than 1 goals18%

Genoa wins by more than 1 goals9%

Corners

Expected total corners8.9

6.5+ corners in the match53%

Cards

Expected total cards2.4

2.5+ cards in the match44%