UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk prediction

2 – 4

Full-time

Match summary

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 22/07/2026, finished 2-4: Dinamo Minsk won. Before the match Jarvis gave Neftchi Baku 53%, the draw 28% and Dinamo Minsk 19%; the actual result had a 19% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 6 goals; Jarvis expected 2.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Neftchi Baku

53%

Draw

28%

Dinamo Minsk

19%

Actual result: Neftchi Baku 2 – 4 Dinamo Minsk · Dinamo Minsk winJarvis gave this outcome: 19%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Neftchi Baku, negative favours Dinamo Minsk) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Minsk)+0.70

Expected total goals2.22

Expected goals Neftchi Baku / Dinamo Minsk1.46 / 0.76

Both teams to score (yes / no)41.7% / 58.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 65.8%

Over 2.5 goals 38.4%

Over 3.5 goals 18.5%

First half

First-half result (Neftchi Baku / draw / Dinamo Minsk)37.2% / 46.5% / 16.2%

A goal in the first half62.7%

Two or more in the first half26.9%

Half-time then full-time

Neftchi Baku lead at half-time then Neftchi Baku win32.4%

Level at half-time then draw19.3%

Level at half-time then Neftchi Baku win19.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Neftchi Baku's side

Neftchi Baku −2.019.1%

Neftchi Baku −1.7523.2%

Neftchi Baku −1.527.3%

Neftchi Baku −1.2533.8%

Neftchi Baku −1.040.2%

Neftchi Baku −0.7546.6%

Neftchi Baku −0.553.0%

Neftchi Baku −0.2560.1%

Neftchi Baku draw no bet (0.0)67.1%

Neftchi Baku +0.2574.1%

Neftchi Baku +0.581.1%

Neftchi Baku +0.7584.4%

Neftchi Baku +1.087.7%

Neftchi Baku +1.594.2%

Neftchi Baku +2.096.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Neftchi Baku win1.89

Draw3.56

Dinamo Minsk win5.30

Over 2.52.61

Under 2.51.62

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Neftchi Baku wins by more than 1 goals27%

Dinamo Minsk wins by more than 1 goals6%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 22/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.