Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Nice
54%
Draw
26%
Le Mans
20%
Actual result: Nice 1 – 1 Le Mans · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Nice, negative favours Le Mans) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Nice - Le Mans)+0.78
Expected total goals2.77
Expected goals Nice / Le Mans1.78 / 1.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.7% / 46.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.8%
Over 2.5 goals 52.4%
Over 3.5 goals 30.2%
First half
First-half result (Nice / draw / Le Mans)39.7% / 42.5% / 17.8%
A goal in the first half70.0%
Two or more in the first half36.7%
Half-time then full-time
Nice lead at half-time then Nice win34.3%
Level at half-time then Nice win18.5%
Level at half-time then draw16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Nice's side
Nice −2.022.9%
Nice −1.7527.1%
Nice −1.531.4%
Nice −1.2537.2%
Nice −1.042.9%
Nice −0.7548.6%
Nice −0.554.4%
Nice −0.2560.9%
Nice draw no bet (0.0)67.4%
Nice +0.2573.8%
Nice +0.580.3%
Nice +0.7583.4%
Nice +1.086.5%
Nice +1.592.6%
Nice +2.095.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Nice win1.84
Draw3.85
Le Mans win5.09
Over 2.51.91
Under 2.52.10
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Nice wins by more than 1 goals31%
Le Mans wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%