Portuguese Primeira Liga

Porto vs Arouca prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Porto vs Arouca (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 24/08/2026, finished 2-0: Porto won. Before the match Jarvis gave Porto 78%, the draw 15% and Arouca 7%; the actual result had a 78% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.

Next for Porto: PSV Eindhoven (Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Porto

78%

Draw

15%

Arouca

Actual result: Porto 2 – 0 Arouca · Porto winJarvis gave this outcome: 78% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Porto, negative favours Arouca) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Porto - Arouca)+1.80

Expected total goals2.97

Expected goals Porto / Arouca2.39 / 0.58

Both teams to score (yes / no)40.1% / 59.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 79.6%

Over 2.5 goals 57.0%

Over 3.5 goals 34.6%

First half

First-half result (Porto / draw / Arouca)56.8% / 34.2% / 9.0%

A goal in the first half73.7%

Two or more in the first half38.6%

Half-time then full-time

Porto lead at half-time then Porto win53.6%

Level at half-time then Porto win21.3%

Level at half-time then draw9.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Porto's side

Porto −2.043.2%

Porto −1.7548.9%

Porto −1.554.6%

Porto −1.2560.3%

Porto −1.066.1%

Porto −0.7571.8%

Porto −0.577.6%

Porto −0.2581.4%

Porto draw no bet (0.0)85.1%

Porto +0.2588.9%

Porto +0.592.7%

Porto +0.7594.1%

Porto +1.095.6%

Porto +1.598.4%

Porto +2.099.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Porto win1.29

Draw6.59

Arouca win13.77

Over 2.51.75

Under 2.52.33

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Porto wins by more than 1 goals55%

Arouca wins by more than 1 goals2%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Porto

vs PSV EindhovenWed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs NapoliThu 05/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 24/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.