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Spanish La Liga

Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction

Real Madrid
02:00, 19/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Sevilla

Quick preview

Real Madrid meet Sevilla in the La Liga, kick-off 02:00 on 19/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Real Madrid are 4th (18 points from 8 games) and Sevilla are 5th (14 points from 8 games). Jarvis gives Real Madrid a 79% chance to win, 14% for a draw and 7% for Sevilla; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-0. Jarvis expects 3.2 goals in the match: both teams score with 43%, 3 or more goals with 62%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Real Madrid
79%
Draw
14%
Sevilla
7%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Madrid, negative favours Sevilla) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Real Madrid - Sevilla)+1.91
Expected total goals3.18
Expected goals Real Madrid / Sevilla2.55 / 0.64
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.2% / 56.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.5%
Over 2.5 goals 61.6%
Over 3.5 goals 39.3%
First half
First-half result (Real Madrid / draw / Sevilla)58.6% / 32.1% / 9.4%
A goal in the first half76.3%
Two or more in the first half41.7%
Half-time then full-time
Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win55.3%
Level at half-time then Real Madrid win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw8.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Real Madrid's side
Real Madrid −2.045.8%
Real Madrid −1.7551.4%
Real Madrid −1.557.0%
Real Madrid −1.2562.4%
Real Madrid −1.067.9%
Real Madrid −0.7573.4%
Real Madrid −0.578.9%
Real Madrid −0.2582.3%
Real Madrid draw no bet (0.0)85.8%
Real Madrid +0.2589.3%
Real Madrid +0.592.7%
Real Madrid +0.7594.1%
Real Madrid +1.095.5%
Real Madrid +1.598.3%
Real Madrid +2.099.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Real Madrid win1.27
Draw7.21
Sevilla win13.77
Over 2.51.62
Under 2.52.60

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals57%
Sevilla wins by more than 1 goals2%

Probability trajectory

Real Madrid vs Sevilla injury report and team news

Real Madrid
  • R. AsencioOut · Broken Leg
  • Eder MilitaoOut · Hamstring Injury
  • F. MendyOut · Hip Injury
  • RodrygoOut · Knee Injury
  • Vinicius JuniorOut · Red Card
Sevilla
  • MarcaoOut · Muscle Injury
  • I. MunozOut · Injury
  • I. RomeroOut · Red Card
  • L. StassinOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. SierraDoubtful · Injury

Real Madrid vs Sevilla team form

Real MadridWWLWW
Last 5 matches
14/10/2026AS Roma (away)4–3
10/10/2026Villarreal (home)1–0
20/09/2026Atletico Madrid (away)1–2
15/09/2026Elche (away)3–2
12/09/2026Rayo Vallecano (home)4–1
SevillaDLLWW
Last 5 matches
12/10/2026Levante (away)3–3
02/10/2026Aston Villa (home)1–3
19/09/2026Barcelona (home)1–3
16/09/2026Deportivo La Coruna (away)1–0
11/09/2026Valencia (home)1–0

Real Madrid vs Sevilla head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Real Madrid won 9, drew 1, lost 0. Real Madrid scored 21 and conceded 8 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
17/05/2026Sevilla0–1Real Madrid
20/12/2025Real Madrid2–0Sevilla
18/05/2025Sevilla0–2Real Madrid
22/12/2024Real Madrid4–2Sevilla
25/02/2024Real Madrid1–0Sevilla
21/10/2023Sevilla1–1Real Madrid
27/05/2023Sevilla1–2Real Madrid
22/10/2022Real Madrid3–1Sevilla
17/04/2022Sevilla2–3Real Madrid
28/11/2021Real Madrid2–1Sevilla

Match information

Venue
Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid
Round
9

Next fixtures of both teams

Real Madrid
  • vs RB LeipzigThu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs Barcelona (away)Mon 26/10, 03:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
Sevilla
  • vs OsasunaTue 27/10, 03:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Getafe (away)Sun 01/11, 20:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

La Liga table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1Barcelona8+2724
2Atletico Madrid8+1019
3Real Betis8+519
4Real Madrid8+1118
5Sevilla8+114
6Real Sociedad8-313

See the full La Liga table