Spanish La Liga

Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction

Real Madrid

02:00, 11/10

Kicking off soon

Villarreal

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Real Madrid

72%

Draw

16%

Villarreal

12%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Madrid, negative favours Villarreal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Madrid - Villarreal)+1.62

Expected total goals3.64

Expected goals Real Madrid / Villarreal2.63 / 1.01

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.0% / 41.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 87.8%

Over 2.5 goals 70.4%

Over 3.5 goals 49.3%

First half

First-half result (Real Madrid / draw / Villarreal)54.3% / 31.5% / 14.1%

A goal in the first half80.5%

Two or more in the first half48.8%

Half-time then full-time

Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win49.6%

Level at half-time then Real Madrid win18.6%

Level at half-time then draw8.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Madrid's side

Real Madrid −2.040.6%

Real Madrid −1.7545.7%

Real Madrid −1.550.8%

Real Madrid −1.2556.1%

Real Madrid −1.061.3%

Real Madrid −0.7566.6%

Real Madrid −0.571.9%

Real Madrid −0.2575.9%

Real Madrid draw no bet (0.0)79.9%

Real Madrid +0.2583.9%

Real Madrid +0.587.8%

Real Madrid +0.7589.9%

Real Madrid +1.091.9%

Real Madrid +1.595.9%

Real Madrid +2.097.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Madrid win1.39

Draw6.27

Villarreal win8.23

Over 2.51.42

Under 2.53.38

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals51%

Villarreal wins by more than 1 goals4%

Corners

Expected total corners10.8

6.5+ corners in the match52%

Cards

Expected total cards2.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory