Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Santa Clara
32%
Famalicao
34%
Actual result: Santa Clara 1 – 0 Famalicao · Santa Clara winJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Santa Clara, negative favours Famalicao) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Santa Clara - Famalicao)-0.04
Expected total goals2.11
Expected goals Santa Clara / Famalicao1.03 / 1.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.5% / 55.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 64.3%
Over 2.5 goals 35.3%
Over 3.5 goals 16.4%
First half
First-half result (Santa Clara / draw / Famalicao)24.1% / 50.4% / 25.5%
A goal in the first half60.1%
Two or more in the first half25.9%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw23.1%
Famalicao lead at half-time then Famalicao win19.9%
Santa Clara lead at half-time then Santa Clara win18.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Santa Clara's side
Santa Clara −2.08.4%
Santa Clara −1.7510.7%
Santa Clara −1.513.0%
Santa Clara −1.2517.8%
Santa Clara −1.022.5%
Santa Clara −0.7527.2%
Santa Clara −0.532.0%
Santa Clara −0.2540.4%
Santa Clara draw no bet (0.0)48.9%
Santa Clara +0.2557.3%
Santa Clara +0.565.7%
Santa Clara +0.7570.7%
Santa Clara +1.075.7%
Santa Clara +1.585.6%
Santa Clara +2.090.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Santa Clara win3.13
Draw2.96
Famalicao win2.92
Over 2.52.83
Under 2.51.55
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Santa Clara wins by more than 1 goals13%
Famalicao wins by more than 1 goals14%
