UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

Thun vs Lech Poznan prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Thun vs Lech Poznan (Europa League), 28/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Thun 33%, the draw 24% and Lech Poznan 43%; the actual result had a 24% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.2.

Next for Lech Poznan: Sunderland (Thu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Thun

33%

Draw

24%

Lech Poznan

43%

Actual result: Thun 2 – 2 Lech Poznan · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Thun, negative favours Lech Poznan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Thun - Lech Poznan)-0.23

Expected total goals3.19

Expected goals Thun / Lech Poznan1.48 / 1.71

Both teams to score (yes / no)63.8% / 36.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 83.3%

Over 2.5 goals 61.8%

Over 3.5 goals 39.5%

First half

First-half result (Thun / draw / Lech Poznan)27.5% / 39.0% / 33.5%

A goal in the first half75.6%

Two or more in the first half42.7%

Half-time then full-time

Lech Poznan lead at half-time then Lech Poznan win26.0%

Thun lead at half-time then Thun win19.5%

Level at half-time then Lech Poznan win14.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Thun's side

Thun −2.010.8%

Thun −1.7513.2%

Thun −1.515.7%

Thun −1.2520.0%

Thun −1.024.3%

Thun −0.7528.6%

Thun −0.533.0%

Thun −0.2539.1%

Thun draw no bet (0.0)45.2%

Thun +0.2551.3%

Thun +0.557.4%

Thun +0.7562.4%

Thun +1.067.4%

Thun +1.577.4%

Thun +2.083.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Thun win3.03

Draw4.09

Lech Poznan win2.35

Over 2.51.62

Under 2.52.62

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Thun wins by more than 1 goals16%

Lech Poznan wins by more than 1 goals23%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Lech Poznan

vs SunderlandThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Benfica (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 28/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Europa League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
...
35	NK Celje	2	-5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	-8	0

See the full Europa League table