UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

AGF vs Benfica prediction

1 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

AGF vs Benfica (Europa League), 28/08/2026, finished 1-3: Benfica won. Before the match Jarvis gave AGF 13%, the draw 18% and Benfica 70%; the actual result had a 70% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.4.

Next for Benfica: Omonia Nicosia (Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

AGF

13%

Draw

18%

Benfica

70%

Actual result: AGF 1 – 3 Benfica · Benfica winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AGF, negative favours Benfica) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (AGF - Benfica)-1.48

Expected total goals3.35

Expected goals AGF / Benfica0.94 / 2.42

Both teams to score (yes / no)55.6% / 44.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 85.0%

Over 2.5 goals 65.1%

Over 3.5 goals 43.1%

First half

First-half result (AGF / draw / Benfica)13.9% / 34.1% / 51.9%

A goal in the first half77.5%

Two or more in the first half44.8%

Half-time then full-time

Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win47.3%

Level at half-time then Benfica win19.3%

Level at half-time then draw10.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from AGF's side

AGF −2.02.6%

AGF −1.753.3%

AGF −1.54.1%

AGF −1.256.2%

AGF −1.08.3%

AGF −0.7510.4%

AGF −0.512.5%

AGF −0.2516.9%

AGF draw no bet (0.0)21.4%

AGF +0.2525.8%

AGF +0.530.2%

AGF +0.7535.8%

AGF +1.041.3%

AGF +1.552.4%

AGF +2.062.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

AGF win7.99

Draw5.64

Benfica win1.43

Over 2.51.54

Under 2.52.87

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

AGF wins by more than 1 goals4%

Benfica wins by more than 1 goals48%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Benfica

vs Omonia Nicosia (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Lech PoznanFri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 28/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Europa League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Besiktas	2	+4	6

See the full Europa League table