Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Villarreal
68%
Draw
20%
Deportivo
13%
Actual result: Villarreal 2 – 3 Deportivo · Deportivo winJarvis gave this outcome: 13%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Villarreal, negative favours Deportivo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Villarreal - Deportivo)+1.33
Expected total goals2.96
Expected goals Villarreal / Deportivo2.15 / 0.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.6% / 50.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.9%
Over 2.5 goals 56.8%
Over 3.5 goals 34.4%
First half
First-half result (Villarreal / draw / Deportivo)49.3% / 37.4% / 13.3%
A goal in the first half73.2%
Two or more in the first half38.9%
Half-time then full-time
Villarreal lead at half-time then Villarreal win44.8%
Level at half-time then Villarreal win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw12.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Villarreal's side
Villarreal −2.033.6%
Villarreal −1.7538.8%
Villarreal −1.543.9%
Villarreal −1.2549.8%
Villarreal −1.055.8%
Villarreal −0.7561.7%
Villarreal −0.567.6%
Villarreal −0.2572.6%
Villarreal draw no bet (0.0)77.5%
Villarreal +0.2582.5%
Villarreal +0.587.5%
Villarreal +0.7589.6%
Villarreal +1.091.8%
Villarreal +1.596.2%
Villarreal +2.097.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Villarreal win1.48
Draw5.03
Deportivo win7.98
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.32
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Villarreal wins by more than 1 goals44%
Deportivo wins by more than 1 goals4%
Corners
Expected total corners10.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match52%