Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
AC Milan
78%
Draw
15%
Lecce
7%
Actual result: AC Milan 3 – 0 Lecce · AC Milan winJarvis gave this outcome: 78% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AC Milan, negative favours Lecce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (AC Milan - Lecce)+1.84
Expected total goals3.05
Expected goals AC Milan / Lecce2.45 / 0.61
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.9% / 58.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.2%
Over 2.5 goals 58.9%
Over 3.5 goals 36.5%
First half
First-half result (AC Milan / draw / Lecce)57.0% / 34.1% / 8.9%
A goal in the first half74.4%
Two or more in the first half40.2%
Half-time then full-time
AC Milan lead at half-time then AC Milan win53.9%
Level at half-time then AC Milan win21.3%
Level at half-time then draw9.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from AC Milan's side
AC Milan −2.044.1%
AC Milan −1.7549.7%
AC Milan −1.555.3%
AC Milan −1.2560.9%
AC Milan −1.066.5%
AC Milan −0.7572.0%
AC Milan −0.577.6%
AC Milan −0.2581.4%
AC Milan draw no bet (0.0)85.3%
AC Milan +0.2589.1%
AC Milan +0.593.0%
AC Milan +0.7594.3%
AC Milan +1.095.6%
AC Milan +1.598.3%
AC Milan +2.099.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
AC Milan win1.29
Draw6.50
Lecce win14.22
Over 2.51.70
Under 2.52.43
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
AC Milan wins by more than 1 goals55%
Lecce wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards2.1
2.5+ cards in the match34%