Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fiorentina
28%
Draw
30%
Napoli
42%
Actual result: Fiorentina 1 – 1 Napoli · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fiorentina, negative favours Napoli) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fiorentina - Napoli)-0.28
Expected total goals2.54
Expected goals Fiorentina / Napoli1.13 / 1.41
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.8% / 47.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.7%
Over 2.5 goals 46.6%
Over 3.5 goals 25.0%
First half
First-half result (Fiorentina / draw / Napoli)23.0% / 45.8% / 31.2%
A goal in the first half66.7%
Two or more in the first half33.0%
Half-time then full-time
Napoli lead at half-time then Napoli win25.2%
Level at half-time then draw19.0%
Fiorentina lead at half-time then Fiorentina win16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fiorentina's side
Fiorentina −2.07.8%
Fiorentina −1.759.9%
Fiorentina −1.512.0%
Fiorentina −1.2516.1%
Fiorentina −1.020.2%
Fiorentina −0.7524.3%
Fiorentina −0.528.4%
Fiorentina −0.2535.9%
Fiorentina draw no bet (0.0)43.3%
Fiorentina +0.2550.8%
Fiorentina +0.558.2%
Fiorentina +0.7563.5%
Fiorentina +1.068.7%
Fiorentina +1.579.2%
Fiorentina +2.085.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fiorentina win3.52
Draw3.35
Napoli win2.39
Over 2.52.15
Under 2.51.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fiorentina wins by more than 1 goals12%
Napoli wins by more than 1 goals21%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards2.1
2.5+ cards in the match35%