French Ligue 1
Auxerre
20:00, 20/09
Kicking off soonBrest
Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Auxerre
30%
Draw
29%
Brest
41%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Auxerre, negative favours Brest) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Auxerre - Brest)-0.25
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Auxerre / Brest1.26 / 1.51
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.5% / 42.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.1%
Over 2.5 goals 52.2%
Over 3.5 goals 30.0%
First half
First-half result (Auxerre / draw / Brest)24.4% / 44.3% / 31.3%
A goal in the first half69.5%
Two or more in the first half37.0%
Half-time then full-time
Brest ahead then Brest win25.0%
level then draw17.8%
Auxerre ahead then Auxerre win17.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Auxerre
Auxerre give 2 trái (−2.0)9.0%
Auxerre give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)11.3%
Auxerre give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)13.5%
Auxerre give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)17.6%
Auxerre give 1 trái (−1.0)21.7%
Auxerre give 3/4 trái (−0.75)25.9%
Auxerre give nửa trái (−0.5)30.0%
Auxerre give 1/4 trái (−0.25)37.2%
Level ball (0.0)44.4%
Auxerre receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)51.6%
Auxerre receive nửa trái (+0.5)58.8%
Auxerre receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)63.8%
Auxerre receive 1 trái (+1.0)68.8%
Auxerre receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)78.8%
Auxerre receive 2 trái (+2.0)85.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Goal margin
Auxerre wins by more than 1 goals14%
Brest wins by more than 1 goals21%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match47%