Italian Serie A
Frosinone
2 – 0
Full-time
ComoOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Frosinone
15%
Draw
21%
Como
65%
Actual result: Frosinone 2 – 0 Como · Frosinone winJarvis gave this outcome: 15%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Frosinone, negative favours Como) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Frosinone - Como)-1.26
Expected total goals3.32
Expected goals Frosinone / Como1.03 / 2.29
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.8% / 41.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.4%
Over 2.5 goals 64.6%
Over 3.5 goals 42.5%
First half
First-half result (Frosinone / draw / Como)15.1% / 37.0% / 47.9%
A goal in the first half76.3%
Two or more in the first half45.3%
Half-time then full-time
Como ahead then Como win43.1%
level then Como win19.3%
level then draw12.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Frosinone
Frosinone give 2 trái (−2.0)3.4%
Frosinone give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)4.4%
Frosinone give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)5.4%
Frosinone give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)7.7%
Frosinone give 1 trái (−1.0)10.0%
Frosinone give 3/4 trái (−0.75)12.3%
Frosinone give nửa trái (−0.5)14.6%
Frosinone give 1/4 trái (−0.25)19.8%
Level ball (0.0)24.9%
Frosinone receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)30.1%
Frosinone receive nửa trái (+0.5)35.3%
Frosinone receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)40.7%
Frosinone receive 1 trái (+1.0)46.1%
Frosinone receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)57.0%
Frosinone receive 2 trái (+2.0)66.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Frosinone win6.85
Draw4.84
Como win1.54
Over 2.51.55
Under 2.52.82
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Frosinone wins by more than 1 goals5%
Como wins by more than 1 goals43%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match43%