UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

Ajax vs Sion prediction

5 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

Ajax vs Sion (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 28/08/2026, finished 5-3: Ajax won. Before the match Jarvis gave Ajax 75%, the draw 15% and Sion 10%; the actual result had a 75% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 8 goals; Jarvis expected 3.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Ajax

75%

Draw

15%

Sion

10%

Actual result: Ajax 5 – 3 Sion · Ajax winJarvis gave this outcome: 75% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ajax, negative favours Sion) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Ajax - Sion)+1.86

Expected total goals3.79

Expected goals Ajax / Sion2.82 / 0.97

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.8% / 41.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 89.7%

Over 2.5 goals 72.9%

Over 3.5 goals 52.4%

First half

First-half result (Ajax / draw / Sion)56.8% / 31.4% / 11.8%

A goal in the first half81.0%

Two or more in the first half51.7%

Half-time then full-time

Ajax lead at half-time then Ajax win52.9%

Level at half-time then Ajax win19.4%

Level at half-time then draw8.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Ajax's side

Ajax −2.045.4%

Ajax −1.7550.5%

Ajax −1.555.7%

Ajax −1.2560.5%

Ajax −1.065.4%

Ajax −0.7570.3%

Ajax −0.575.2%

Ajax −0.2579.0%

Ajax draw no bet (0.0)82.8%

Ajax +0.2586.6%

Ajax +0.590.4%

Ajax +0.7592.0%

Ajax +1.093.6%

Ajax +1.596.8%

Ajax +2.098.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Ajax win1.33

Draw6.57

Sion win10.45

Over 2.51.37

Under 2.53.69

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Ajax wins by more than 1 goals56%

Sion wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 28/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.