Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Angers
46%
Draw
29%
ESTAC Troyes
26%
Actual result: Angers 2 – 0 ESTAC Troyes · Angers winJarvis gave this outcome: 46% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Angers, negative favours ESTAC Troyes) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Angers - ESTAC Troyes)+0.44
Expected total goals2.69
Expected goals Angers / ESTAC Troyes1.56 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.1% / 44.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.6%
Over 2.5 goals 50.3%
Over 3.5 goals 28.3%
First half
First-half result (Angers / draw / ESTAC Troyes)34.0% / 44.6% / 21.4%
A goal in the first half68.6%
Two or more in the first half35.6%
Half-time then full-time
Angers lead at half-time then Angers win28.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.9%
Level at half-time then Angers win16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Angers's side
Angers −2.017.2%
Angers −1.7520.8%
Angers −1.524.4%
Angers −1.2529.7%
Angers −1.035.1%
Angers −0.7540.5%
Angers −0.545.8%
Angers −0.2553.0%
Angers draw no bet (0.0)60.2%
Angers +0.2567.3%
Angers +0.574.5%
Angers +0.7578.2%
Angers +1.081.9%
Angers +1.589.4%
Angers +2.093.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Angers win2.18
Draw3.49
ESTAC Troyes win3.92
Over 2.51.99
Under 2.52.01
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Angers wins by more than 1 goals24%
ESTAC Troyes wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match60%