Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Udinese
41%
Draw
32%
Cagliari
27%
Actual result: Udinese 0 – 1 Cagliari · Cagliari winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Udinese, negative favours Cagliari) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Udinese - Cagliari)+0.30
Expected total goals2.35
Expected goals Udinese / Cagliari1.33 / 1.02
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.2% / 50.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.2%
Over 2.5 goals 41.7%
Over 3.5 goals 21.1%
First half
First-half result (Udinese / draw / Cagliari)30.4% / 48.1% / 21.5%
A goal in the first half63.7%
Two or more in the first half30.1%
Half-time then full-time
Udinese lead at half-time then Udinese win24.9%
Level at half-time then draw21.0%
Level at half-time then Udinese win16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Udinese's side
Udinese −2.013.7%
Udinese −1.7516.9%
Udinese −1.520.1%
Udinese −1.2525.5%
Udinese −1.030.8%
Udinese −0.7536.1%
Udinese −0.541.4%
Udinese −0.2549.4%
Udinese draw no bet (0.0)57.4%
Udinese +0.2565.3%
Udinese +0.573.3%
Udinese +0.7577.3%
Udinese +1.081.3%
Udinese +1.589.2%
Udinese +2.093.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Udinese win2.41
Draw3.14
Cagliari win3.74
Over 2.52.40
Under 2.51.72
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Udinese wins by more than 1 goals20%
Cagliari wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%