Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Newcastle
60%
Draw
23%
Hull
17%
Actual result: Newcastle 2 – 1 Hull · Newcastle winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Newcastle, negative favours Hull) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Newcastle - Hull)+0.98
Expected total goals2.78
Expected goals Newcastle / Hull1.88 / 0.90
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.6% / 49.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.9%
Over 2.5 goals 52.6%
Over 3.5 goals 30.4%
First half
First-half result (Newcastle / draw / Hull)43.7% / 39.9% / 16.5%
A goal in the first half71.1%
Two or more in the first half35.9%
Half-time then full-time
Newcastle lead at half-time then Newcastle win38.4%
Level at half-time then Newcastle win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw13.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Newcastle's side
Newcastle −2.026.3%
Newcastle −1.7531.0%
Newcastle −1.535.6%
Newcastle −1.2541.7%
Newcastle −1.047.8%
Newcastle −0.7553.9%
Newcastle −0.560.0%
Newcastle −0.2565.7%
Newcastle draw no bet (0.0)71.4%
Newcastle +0.2577.1%
Newcastle +0.582.7%
Newcastle +0.7585.6%
Newcastle +1.088.5%
Newcastle +1.594.3%
Newcastle +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Newcastle win1.67
Draw4.41
Hull win5.79
Over 2.51.90
Under 2.52.11
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Newcastle wins by more than 1 goals36%
Hull wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners10.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match52%