Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Tottenham
48%
Draw
27%
Aston Villa
24%
Actual result: Tottenham 2 – 3 Aston Villa · Aston Villa winJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Tottenham, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Tottenham - Aston Villa)+0.53
Expected total goals2.78
Expected goals Tottenham / Aston Villa1.65 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.1% / 43.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.0%
Over 2.5 goals 52.5%
Over 3.5 goals 30.3%
First half
First-half result (Tottenham / draw / Aston Villa)35.7% / 43.4% / 20.9%
A goal in the first half69.9%
Two or more in the first half37.0%
Half-time then full-time
Tottenham lead at half-time then Tottenham win29.8%
Level at half-time then draw16.9%
Level at half-time then Tottenham win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Tottenham's side
Tottenham −2.018.8%
Tottenham −1.7522.6%
Tottenham −1.526.4%
Tottenham −1.2531.8%
Tottenham −1.037.3%
Tottenham −0.7542.7%
Tottenham −0.548.2%
Tottenham −0.2555.0%
Tottenham draw no bet (0.0)61.9%
Tottenham +0.2568.8%
Tottenham +0.575.6%
Tottenham +0.7579.2%
Tottenham +1.082.8%
Tottenham +1.590.0%
Tottenham +2.093.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Tottenham win2.08
Draw3.64
Aston Villa win4.11
Over 2.51.90
Under 2.52.11
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Tottenham wins by more than 1 goals26%
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners10.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards4.2
2.5+ cards in the match42%