Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Werder Bremen
41%
Draw
25%
Augsburg
34%
Actual result: Werder Bremen 3 – 2 Augsburg · Werder Bremen winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Werder Bremen, negative favours Augsburg) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Werder Bremen - Augsburg)+0.18
Expected total goals3.39
Expected goals Werder Bremen / Augsburg1.78 / 1.61
Both teams to score (yes / no)67.8% / 32.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.5%
Over 2.5 goals 65.7%
Over 3.5 goals 43.8%
First half
First-half result (Werder Bremen / draw / Augsburg)32.4% / 39.9% / 27.8%
A goal in the first half76.4%
Two or more in the first half46.8%
Half-time then full-time
Werder Bremen lead at half-time then Werder Bremen win25.1%
Augsburg lead at half-time then Augsburg win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw14.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Werder Bremen's side
Werder Bremen −2.016.1%
Werder Bremen −1.7519.3%
Werder Bremen −1.522.5%
Werder Bremen −1.2527.1%
Werder Bremen −1.031.7%
Werder Bremen −0.7536.4%
Werder Bremen −0.541.0%
Werder Bremen −0.2547.3%
Werder Bremen draw no bet (0.0)53.6%
Werder Bremen +0.2560.0%
Werder Bremen +0.566.3%
Werder Bremen +0.7570.4%
Werder Bremen +1.074.6%
Werder Bremen +1.582.9%
Werder Bremen +2.088.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Werder Bremen win2.44
Draw3.95
Augsburg win2.97
Over 2.51.52
Under 2.52.92
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Werder Bremen wins by more than 1 goals22%
Augsburg wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%