Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Osasuna
36%
Draw
31%
Rayo Vallecano
33%
Actual result: Osasuna 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Osasuna, negative favours Rayo Vallecano) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano)+0.06
Expected total goals2.45
Expected goals Osasuna / Rayo Vallecano1.26 / 1.20
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.8% / 48.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.2%
Over 2.5 goals 44.4%
Over 3.5 goals 23.2%
First half
First-half result (Osasuna / draw / Rayo Vallecano)27.4% / 47.0% / 25.6%
A goal in the first half65.4%
Two or more in the first half31.7%
Half-time then full-time
Osasuna lead at half-time then Osasuna win21.2%
Level at half-time then draw20.1%
Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time then Rayo Vallecano win19.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Osasuna's side
Osasuna −2.011.1%
Osasuna −1.7513.8%
Osasuna −1.516.5%
Osasuna −1.2521.4%
Osasuna −1.026.2%
Osasuna −0.7531.0%
Osasuna −0.535.9%
Osasuna −0.2543.6%
Osasuna draw no bet (0.0)51.4%
Osasuna +0.2559.2%
Osasuna +0.567.0%
Osasuna +0.7571.6%
Osasuna +1.076.1%
Osasuna +1.585.3%
Osasuna +2.090.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Osasuna win2.79
Draw3.21
Rayo Vallecano win3.03
Over 2.52.25
Under 2.51.80
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Osasuna wins by more than 1 goals17%
Rayo Vallecano wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%