Italian Serie B

Arezzo vs Palermo prediction

Arezzo

2 – 3

Full-time

Palermo

Match summary

Arezzo vs Palermo (Italian Serie B), 31/08/2026, finished 2-3: Palermo won.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Arezzo

24%

Draw

31%

Palermo

45%

Actual result: Arezzo 2 – 3 Palermo · Palermo winJarvis gave this outcome: 45% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arezzo, negative favours Palermo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Arezzo - Palermo)-0.45

Expected total goals2.38

Expected goals Arezzo / Palermo0.97 / 1.41

Both teams to score (yes / no)48.9% / 51.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 70.7%

Over 2.5 goals 42.5%

Over 3.5 goals 21.7%

First half

First-half result (Arezzo / draw / Palermo)19.6% / 47.5% / 32.9%

A goal in the first half64.2%

Two or more in the first half30.6%

Half-time then full-time

Palermo lead at half-time then Palermo win27.6%

Level at half-time then draw20.4%

Level at half-time then Palermo win17.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Arezzo's side

Arezzo −2.05.8%

Arezzo −1.757.4%

Arezzo −1.59.1%

Arezzo −1.2512.7%

Arezzo −1.016.4%

Arezzo −0.7520.0%

Arezzo −0.523.7%

Arezzo −0.2531.4%

Arezzo draw no bet (0.0)39.2%

Arezzo +0.2546.9%

Arezzo +0.554.6%

Arezzo +0.7560.2%

Arezzo +1.065.8%

Arezzo +1.576.9%

Arezzo +2.084.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Arezzo win4.22

Draw3.23

Palermo win2.20

Over 2.52.35

Under 2.51.74

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Arezzo wins by more than 1 goals9%

Palermo wins by more than 1 goals23%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 31/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.