Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Aston Villa
41%
Draw
30%
Nottm Forest
29%
Actual result: Aston Villa 1 – 2 Nottm Forest · Nottm Forest winJarvis gave this outcome: 29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Aston Villa, negative favours Nottm Forest) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Aston Villa - Nottm Forest)+0.27
Expected total goals2.44
Expected goals Aston Villa / Nottm Forest1.35 / 1.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.5% / 49.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.4%
Over 2.5 goals 44.0%
Over 3.5 goals 22.9%
First half
First-half result (Aston Villa / draw / Nottm Forest)30.7% / 46.4% / 22.9%
A goal in the first half65.5%
Two or more in the first half31.1%
Half-time then full-time
Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win24.8%
Level at half-time then draw19.4%
Nottm Forest lead at half-time then Nottm Forest win16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Aston Villa's side
Aston Villa −2.013.6%
Aston Villa −1.7516.8%
Aston Villa −1.520.0%
Aston Villa −1.2525.3%
Aston Villa −1.030.7%
Aston Villa −0.7536.0%
Aston Villa −0.541.4%
Aston Villa −0.2548.9%
Aston Villa draw no bet (0.0)56.4%
Aston Villa +0.2563.9%
Aston Villa +0.571.4%
Aston Villa +0.7575.7%
Aston Villa +1.079.9%
Aston Villa +1.588.3%
Aston Villa +2.092.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Aston Villa win2.42
Draw3.33
Nottm Forest win3.50
Over 2.52.27
Under 2.51.78
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals20%
Nottm Forest wins by more than 1 goals12%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%