Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Atalanta
56%
Draw
26%
Cagliari
17%
Actual result: Atalanta 1 – 2 Cagliari · Cagliari winJarvis gave this outcome: 17%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atalanta, negative favours Cagliari) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atalanta - Cagliari)+0.85
Expected total goals2.53
Expected goals Atalanta / Cagliari1.69 / 0.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.6% / 52.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.1%
Over 2.5 goals 46.4%
Over 3.5 goals 24.9%
First half
First-half result (Atalanta / draw / Cagliari)40.3% / 43.8% / 15.9%
A goal in the first half67.0%
Two or more in the first half32.5%
Half-time then full-time
Atalanta lead at half-time then Atalanta win35.5%
Level at half-time then Atalanta win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw17.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atalanta's side
Atalanta −2.023.1%
Atalanta −1.7527.5%
Atalanta −1.532.0%
Atalanta −1.2538.1%
Atalanta −1.044.2%
Atalanta −0.7550.3%
Atalanta −0.556.4%
Atalanta −0.2562.9%
Atalanta draw no bet (0.0)69.5%
Atalanta +0.2576.1%
Atalanta +0.582.7%
Atalanta +0.7585.6%
Atalanta +1.088.4%
Atalanta +1.594.2%
Atalanta +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Atalanta win1.77
Draw3.80
Cagliari win5.77
Over 2.52.15
Under 2.51.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Atalanta wins by more than 1 goals32%
Cagliari wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.5
2.5+ cards in the match46%