Elite Friendlies

Atletico Madrid vs Getafe prediction

4 – 1
Full-time

Match summary

Atletico Madrid vs Getafe (Elite Friendlies), 30/07/2026, finished 4-1: Atletico Madrid won. Before the match Jarvis gave Atletico Madrid 58%, the draw 22% and Getafe 20%; the actual result had a 58% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
58%
Draw
22%
Getafe
20%
Actual result: Atletico Madrid 4 – 1 Getafe · Atletico Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico Madrid, negative favours Getafe) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atletico Madrid - Getafe)+0.89
Expected total goals3.12
Expected goals Atletico Madrid / Getafe2.00 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.3% / 41.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.0%
Over 2.5 goals 60.2%
Over 3.5 goals 37.9%
First half
First-half result (Atletico Madrid / draw / Getafe)43.1% / 37.6% / 19.3%
A goal in the first half75.1%
Two or more in the first half41.2%
Half-time then full-time
Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win37.0%
Level at half-time then Atletico Madrid win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw12.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atletico Madrid's side
Atletico Madrid −2.025.9%
Atletico Madrid −1.7530.3%
Atletico Madrid −1.534.7%
Atletico Madrid −1.2540.5%
Atletico Madrid −1.046.2%
Atletico Madrid −0.7551.9%
Atletico Madrid −0.557.7%
Atletico Madrid −0.2563.2%
Atletico Madrid draw no bet (0.0)68.6%
Atletico Madrid +0.2574.1%
Atletico Madrid +0.579.6%
Atletico Madrid +0.7582.8%
Atletico Madrid +1.085.9%
Atletico Madrid +1.592.3%
Atletico Madrid +2.095.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Atletico Madrid win1.73
Draw4.57
Getafe win4.90
Over 2.51.66
Under 2.52.51

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals35%
Getafe wins by more than 1 goals8%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs VfB Stuttgart (away)Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs DeportivoSun 25/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Rayo VallecanoTue 20/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Athletic Club (away)Sun 25/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 30/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.