Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
27%
Draw
27%
Real Madrid
46%
Actual result: Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Real Madrid · Atletico Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico Madrid, negative favours Real Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid)-0.43
Expected total goals3.16
Expected goals Atletico Madrid / Real Madrid1.37 / 1.80
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.9% / 36.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.2%
Over 2.5 goals 61.3%
Over 3.5 goals 39.0%
First half
First-half result (Atletico Madrid / draw / Real Madrid)23.3% / 41.7% / 35.0%
A goal in the first half73.9%
Two or more in the first half43.7%
Half-time then full-time
Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win28.6%
Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win16.1%
Level at half-time then Real Madrid win15.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atletico Madrid's side
Atletico Madrid −2.08.7%
Atletico Madrid −1.7510.8%
Atletico Madrid −1.512.8%
Atletico Madrid −1.2516.5%
Atletico Madrid −1.020.2%
Atletico Madrid −0.7523.8%
Atletico Madrid −0.527.5%
Atletico Madrid −0.2534.1%
Atletico Madrid draw no bet (0.0)40.8%
Atletico Madrid +0.2547.4%
Atletico Madrid +0.554.0%
Atletico Madrid +0.7559.0%
Atletico Madrid +1.064.0%
Atletico Madrid +1.573.9%
Atletico Madrid +2.081.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Atletico Madrid win3.64
Draw3.77
Real Madrid win2.18
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals13%
Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals26%
Corners
Expected total corners10.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards6.1
2.5+ cards in the match57%