Spanish La Liga

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga), 23/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Atletico Madrid 51%, the draw 26% and Villarreal 22%; the actual result had a 26% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Atletico Madrid

51%

Draw

26%

Villarreal

22%

Actual result: Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 Villarreal · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico Madrid, negative favours Villarreal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Atletico Madrid - Villarreal)+0.65

Expected total goals2.76

Expected goals Atletico Madrid / Villarreal1.71 / 1.06

Both teams to score (yes / no)54.6% / 45.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.5%

Over 2.5 goals 52.1%

Over 3.5 goals 29.9%

First half

First-half result (Atletico Madrid / draw / Villarreal)37.8% / 42.7% / 19.5%

A goal in the first half70.0%

Two or more in the first half36.4%

Half-time then full-time

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win32.1%

Level at half-time then Atletico Madrid win17.6%

Level at half-time then draw16.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Atletico Madrid's side

Atletico Madrid −2.020.7%

Atletico Madrid −1.7524.7%

Atletico Madrid −1.528.7%

Atletico Madrid −1.2534.4%

Atletico Madrid −1.040.0%

Atletico Madrid −0.7545.7%

Atletico Madrid −0.551.4%

Atletico Madrid −0.2558.0%

Atletico Madrid draw no bet (0.0)64.6%

Atletico Madrid +0.2571.2%

Atletico Madrid +0.577.8%

Atletico Madrid +0.7581.2%

Atletico Madrid +1.084.6%

Atletico Madrid +1.591.3%

Atletico Madrid +2.094.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Atletico Madrid win1.95

Draw3.78

Villarreal win4.51

Over 2.51.92

Under 2.52.09

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals29%

Villarreal wins by more than 1 goals9%

Corners

Expected total corners10.1

6.5+ corners in the match55%

Cards

Expected total cards3.0

2.5+ cards in the match57%