Italian Serie A

Parma vs Cagliari prediction

0 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Parma vs Cagliari (Serie A), 23/08/2026, finished 0-1: Cagliari won. Before the match Jarvis gave Parma 36%, the draw 34% and Cagliari 30%; the actual result had a 30% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-0. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Parma

36%

Draw

34%

Cagliari

30%

Actual result: Parma 0 – 1 Cagliari · Cagliari winJarvis gave this outcome: 30%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Parma, negative favours Cagliari) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Parma - Cagliari)+0.10

Expected total goals2.09

Expected goals Parma / Cagliari1.10 / 0.99

Both teams to score (yes / no)43.9% / 56.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 63.8%

Over 2.5 goals 34.8%

Over 3.5 goals 16.0%

First half

First-half result (Parma / draw / Cagliari)26.3% / 50.6% / 23.1%

A goal in the first half59.7%

Two or more in the first half25.5%

Half-time then full-time

Level at half-time then draw23.3%

Parma lead at half-time then Parma win20.8%

Cagliari lead at half-time then Cagliari win17.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Parma's side

Parma −2.010.0%

Parma −1.7512.6%

Parma −1.515.2%

Parma −1.2520.3%

Parma −1.025.5%

Parma −0.7530.6%

Parma −0.535.7%

Parma −0.2544.1%

Parma draw no bet (0.0)52.6%

Parma +0.2561.1%

Parma +0.569.6%

Parma +0.7574.1%

Parma +1.078.7%

Parma +1.587.9%

Parma +2.092.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Parma win2.80

Draw2.95

Cagliari win3.28

Over 2.52.87

Under 2.51.53

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Parma wins by more than 1 goals15%

Cagliari wins by more than 1 goals12%

Corners

Expected total corners9.0

6.5+ corners in the match55%

Cards

Expected total cards2.1

2.5+ cards in the match35%